Four Scenarios Studied to Deal With Congestion
As San Diego braces itself for massive traffic congestion over the next 20 years, the solution may lie in transforming public transit into a “second car.”
But there are no answers as to who will pay for it, and whether any new taxes will be levied to cover it.
“By 2020, we could have what some major cities in the world have now, a transit system that serves as the average family’s second car,” said Leon Williams, chairman of the Metropolitan Transit Development Board.
The revamped transit system would be faster, more comfortable and easier to use. This will help boost public transportation, reducing the congestion San Diegans can expect as the county prepares to add 1 million new residents over the next 20 years, he said.
Williams spoke as the MTDB unveiled its TransitWorks plan Aug. 24. The plan lays out four possible scenarios, each describing a possible role transit could play in providing San Diegans with alternatives to the automobile and traffic congestion, he said.
Dave Schumacher, transit works project manager for the MTDB, cautioned that the board has not yet selected a preferred alternative among the four. The board will make its decision in late October, he said.
The first two scenarios are “Basic Mobility” and “Mobility Plus,” which largely maintain the status quo. Both scenarios would limit public transit to providing basic service largely to transit-dependent riders, Schumacher said.
In the first case, the TransNet sales tax, which provides money to public transportation and will sunset in the year 2008, would be allowed to expire. In the second scenario, TransNet would be extended, providing continued funds to add more service, he said.
‘Second Car’
The third scenario, “Region’s Second Car,” would revamp the transit system to make it more attractive and feasible for workday commuters. The fourth scenario, “Transit First,” would go even further, giving transit projects priority so it becomes the preferred choice of travel for many work-related and nonwork trips, he said.
Both the “Region’s Second Car” and the more elaborate “Transit First” scenario would implement several key features to make public transit easier to use, such as more frequent service, faster and more direct routes to major employment centers, and other features.
But these features could get expensive, and the question remains how to pay for it.
“The reality is with Scenario 3, there’s going to be a bit of a sticker shock. It’s not going to be inexpensive to do this,” he said.
The MTDB is evaluating the plans and does not yet have a dollar amount for how much it would cost. But both Scenarios 3 and 4 are based on what other cities have done and can be implemented here , provided the city has the political will to create it, he said.
TransNet Tax
Schumacher cited the city of Dallas, which funds public transportation with a 1 cent sales tax. By contrast, San Diego devotes only a half-cent , and that’s to all of its transportation needs. Only one-third of the TransNet tax goes to public transit, he said.
Linda Culp, senior transportation planner with the San Diego Association of Governments, said at this early stage, it’s difficult to tell where San Diego would find the money to pay for more public transit. But there were several possibilities.
“It’s something that’s going to have to be looked at. Right now a third of a half- percent sales tax goes to transit. Well, maybe it’s a half-cent just for transit. Or maybe it’s not sales tax, maybe it’s something else, like the gas tax,” she said.
Culp noted Sandag is already leaning toward a greater role for public transportation in the future and is looking into amending its regional transportation plan to that end.
But more money for public transit could be a hard sell. The Building Industry Association of San Diego County has been running ads in local papers arguing the amount of money currently devoted to public transit is already disproportionately large.
Objections
Paul Tryon, executive vice president of the BIA, noted that only 2 percent of San Diegans used public transit, but that’s where one-third of the TransNet money goes.
“We’re spending an awful lot of money to benefit a very narrow and small part of our population, and we think there might be better ways to spend those transportation dollars,” he said.
The BIA was not opposed to public transit funding, per se. But San Diegans need to understand where its transportation money is being spent, and transportation planners need to be sure they have the consensus of the people before diverting additional money away from local roads and highways, Tryon said.
Schumacher, meanwhile, said the 2 percent figure is misleading , it covers all of the San Diego region, including rural areas where it would be difficult to introduce public transit, such as Julian and Borrego Springs.
But in the main transportation corridors of San Diego, the percentage is much higher. Schumacher estimated public transit comprises anywhere between 15 to 20 percent of all the trips into Downtown.
Increased Congestion
And the only alternative to improved public transportation is increased congestion. At present rates of automobile ownership, San Diego’s 1 million new residents will bring about 685,000 cars with them.
“We can’t build roadways fast enough to accommodate the increased level of auto usage that would occur now, and with these new residents. So transit has a very important role to play, and it really needs to play an even more important role in the future, because of the increased level of congestion,” Schumacher said.
