This year, how the tourism industry will perform during the traditionally slow holiday season is more of a question mark than usual.
The industry is still reeling from the slumping economy and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks’ affect on travel.
The local Convention & Visitors Bureau released a fourth quarter forecast predicting a loss of $268 million in visitor spending.
An updated forecast, including projections for 2002, is expected to be released in the next week or so.
After the terrorist attacks, ConVis reworked its marketing plans and created a new $640,000 cooperative campaign focused on the 11 Western states and mostly on the nearby driving-distance market.
The four-month “Rediscover San Diego” campaign uses print and radio advertising to direct prospective visitors to a 1-800 number and Web site. The program features a savings booklet.
Approximately 100 of the bureau’s member companies paid to be part of the campaign.
According to Sal Giametta, “Rediscover” has begun showing signs of success.
Contacts from the booklet and Web sites are ways the bureau is evaluating the campaign.
From its launch Oct. 28 through Nov. 19, for instance, there have been 4,616 requests for the campaign’s savings booklet, Giametta said.
“We’re very pleased with the numbers,” he said. “We’ve entered the slowest time for the industry, and this is about three times the number of requests for any of our publications that we would normally get at this time of the year.”
So far, there have been 2,848 calls to the bureau’s 1-800 number created for “Rediscover.” Of those calls, 1,275 people requested the booklet.
There have been 11,076 visits to the “Rediscover San Diego” Web page, and from that, there have been 3,341 requests for the booklet, Giametta said.
Local hotelier Bob Payne said the long-term effect of the “Rediscover” campaign has yet to be seen.
“They’re doing the best they can,” said Payne, president and CEO of Multi-Ventures, Inc., the holding company of the Hilton San Diego Mission Valley and the Hanalei Red Lion.
He continued, “San Diego is very fortunate to be located where it is, where we have feeder markets such as the greater Los Angeles area and Phoenix area, where people do have the alternative to drive.”
Payne described the number of bookings for his hotel for the upcoming holidays as “dismal.”
He didn’t have actual figures, and last minute bookings could make a difference, he said.
Compared to the whole year, the business between Thanksgiving and Christmas is considered “fairly minor” by the hotel industry, he said.
Since Sept. 11, business has been down about 25 percent, Payne said.
“It’s always dismal for the holidays,” he said. “Will it be worse than normal (this year)? Probably. And into 2002, we don’t expect a full recovery.”
Thanksgiving is the worst time of the year for the hotel business, he noted.
“People travel, but they stay in homes and they stay with relatives,” he said. “Business travelers aren’t out there.”
Payne expects to see a gradual increase throughout next year, and already sees business improving.
“Will we reach a level that could have been expected before Sept. 11?” he said. “No.”
The Thanksgiving week’s travel volumes would be the first indication of how tourism will fare this Christmas, Payne said.
“If travel is good over Thanksgiving, then I think we’ve got some real positives to build on,” he said. “If that isn’t the case, then I think we’re in for a long haul.”
Restaurants, which initially suffered when the terrorist attacks added to the problems of a sluggish economy, are seeing relief.
According to Stephen Zolezzi, executive vice president of the Food & Beverage Association of San Diego County, many local restaurants are doing “much better.”
