t’s no secret Lindbergh Field is too small to service the needs of the nation’s sixth-largest city.
As if we needed more proof, a report issued this month by the San Diego Association of Governments clinches what we already know. On the surface, the draft of the Airport Economic Analysis, which cost Sandag some $325,000 to compile, appears to be the latest study over the course of the past five decades questioning the need for a new airport.
This report, however, marks the first time regional leaders have attempted to put a price tag on the economic impact of Lindbergh Field vs. building an airport to meet our region’s air-traffic needs. The results, in terms of economic effects on San Diego County, are astounding to say the least.
The problem is, as much as the business community salivates over a new airport, it’s like the apple that’s just out of grasp. We can see it, almost taste it, but just can’t grab ahold of it.
Until San Diego locks down a site , the only two workable locations are MCAS Miramar and Camp Pendleton , such studies only serve to whet our appetite.
The report states that over the next 30 years our economy could grow by 76 percent, adding 50,000 air traffic-related jobs along the way. Our region’s economic activity today is about $95 billion annually. If an airport were built, by 2030 our annual economic haul would total some $167 billion.
Should it not be built, the study determines we would lose out on $30 billion to $90 billion in gross sales, personal wages and local tax revenues. Three engines currently driving our economy , manufacturing, tourism and high-tech , would stand to lose significantly.
The study, of course, assumes the airport would be built to handle passenger as well as cargo demands. According to the report, a new, unconstrained airport would handle 35.5 million passengers and 541,000 tons of cargo in 2030. Compare that to Lindbergh Field’s 1997 figures of 15.3 million passengers and 106,000 tons of cargo.
While the economic benefits have crystallized like never before, don’t expect the Pentagon to give up either Miramar or Pendleton in the near future. And we must face the question: Are we willing to sacrifice the loss of a major military installation as well as its accompanying activities?
Should Miramar ever go away, it would have a major effect on the entire operations and assets of the Third Fleet’s Naval Pacific Air Force ,particularly hard-hit would be North Island Naval Air Station’s operations, which still works hand-in-hand with many of Miramar’s air squadrons.
Perhaps when Sandag authorizes its next airport study, it can factor the economic loss of one of the military installations into the economic benefits of a new airport.
As tangible as this new study may be, the real gauge could be weighing the loss of one economic driver for another.
, Rick Bell
