OCEANSIDE , It’s not just the talk of war that turns people serious.
Sit on the doorstep of a military base, as this community does, and the possibility of war brings a second possibility: a reshaped economy.
If large groups of Marines leave Camp Pendleton to fight, the city will feel it. Some observers say a deployment would affect those who deal in big-ticket items, like automobiles and housing, as well as merchants here and in nearby cities.
Camp Pendleton Marine Corps Base reported $705.9 million in military payroll and $135.8 million in civilian payroll during 2000, said Kelly Cunningham, research manager for the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Economic Research Bureau.
One Marine estimate put Camp Pendleton’s total economic impact at $2.26 billion. The estimate, based on 1997 figures, takes in other spending and likely uses “fairly substantial multipliers,” Cunningham said.
Remove any payroll from a community, said Tom Missett, and it will have an impact.
Both Missett and Ira Rosenthal, two observers of the North County economy, said they have seen military wives or girlfriends leave local apartments and go home following a deployment. In that way, the situation can be “a double whammy” on the economy, Rosenthal said.
Of course, neither has a crystal ball.
“Every situation is different,” said Missett, former publisher of the North County Blade-Citizen newspaper. “You never know. You just never know.”
David Nydegger, CEO of the Oceanside Chamber of Commerce, wonders if there will be large deployments of Marines. He thinks back to President George W. Bush’s recent assertion that the war on terrorism will be fought a lot differently than wars of the past.
“I don’t know if we’ll see mass movements of troops,” he said.
Rosenthal viewed the movements surrounding the Gulf War in 1990 and 1991 from his job as the classified advertising manager at the Blade-Citizen, which merged in 1995 with the Escondido Times Advocate to form the North County Times.
It’s a good spot to gather business intelligence, said Rosenthal, since classified advertising is “a very ‘today’ business.”
With his realtor and property manager clients, he watched vacancy rates go up during the Persian Gulf crisis. Rents dropped as demand plummeted.
“It’s not rocket science,” said Rosenthal, who now works for San Dieguito Printers. “It’s just basic, fundamental economics.”
Dry cleaners and barbershops had less work, he said. There was a shortage of people who would deliver pizza at night.
It would be a mistake to see 2001 and 2002 as a replay of 1990 and 1991, the years of Operation Desert Shield and Operation Desert Storm.
The economy was bad during the Gulf War, Missett recalled , but interest rates were not as low as they are now.
Previous crises, he added, were measured in months rather than years. Many crises since Vietnam have had quick endings, he said.
Tying your livelihood to one thing is not a good strategy, observed John Daley. He has been co-owner of Oceanside’s 101 Cafe for 15 years.
Fortunately, he said, his business district now serves a healthy mix of service people, tourists and other customers.
“At least in downtown we’re not as affected by the military payroll as we were in the past,” he said.
The barbershops, furniture stores and perhaps the check cashing establishments are probably most dependent on Marines, he said.
Daley is board chairman for Oceanside’s Main Street Program, a business group that promotes downtown Oceanside and produces special events to bring people to the city’s core.
Daley even sees a scenario where the Marines’ absence could spell opportunity for business: Reservists may come to take their place at the base, he said, adding that reservists are “more free to do things in the community” and may have a little more money to spend.
