While a regional economic index rose for a sixth straight month in September, the overall picture for San Diego remains weak and the slump will likely continue until next year, according to the University of San Diego’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators released Oct. 27.
The USD economic index increased by 1 percent in September, its biggest jump since April when the index rose a mere 0.2 percent.
The index, a measurement of six components, showed a significant gain from a jump in the area’s consumer confidence index, a larger number of issued building permits and a rising national economic index.
However, during September a record number of initial claims for unemployment insurance were filed, which is measured as a negative. Small declines in local stock prices and help-wanted ads also depressed the overall index, according to the index report compiled by Alan Gin, a USD economics professor.
“The outlook continues to be for the local economy to remain weak for the rest of 2009 but to hit a bottom in the first half of 2010,” Gin said. “Economic activity may already be picking up, but businesses tend to be cautious in terms of hiring new workers until they are sure that a recovery has taken hold. As a result, the local unemployment rate is expected to approach and may top the 11 percent mark before improving.”
As of September, the county’s unemployment rate was 10.2 percent, down from 10.6 percent in August, but greater than the 6.4 percent rate in September 2008.
— Mike Allen
