San Diego Business Journal

Local Economic Index Rises Slightly; Outlook Positive

Friday, January 4, 2013

An index measuring San Diego’s economy edged up a tenth of a point in November, its 11th rise in the last 13 months.

The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County increased to 122.8, up 6.6 points from November 2011.

While the increase was modest, it was still positive and the outlook for the local economy in 2013 is for positive growth, said Alan Gin, the USD economics professor who compiles the data for the index.

The November gain was led by a strong increase in employment (measured by a reduced number of claims for unemployment insurance); and smaller gains in consumer confidence and help wanted ads.

The month also showed moderate declines in the number of housing permits issued, local stock prices, and the outlook for the national economy.

While Congress averted pushing the nation over the fiscal cliff by addressing the income tax and a few other tax issues, it didn’t resolve the sequestration cuts to defense and domestic programs that could have a huge effect on the local economy, Gin said.

“While I’m optimistic that the issue will be dealt with, there is a potential for a stalemate there and on the extension of the debt ceiling, both of which would have negative consequences,” he said.

— SDBJ Staff Report