Just mentioning the acronym in certain circles elicits frowns.
BRAC stands for “Base Realignment and Closure” a process being mentioned again as a possible solution to an already stated goal of reducing the national defense budget.
Larry Blumberg, executive director of San Diego Military Advisory Council, which generated several reports on the economic impact of the region’s military presence, thinks the process is a long way off.
“Because it’s an election year, there’s no sense of Congress putting it in the budget this year,” Blumberg said. “Congress doesn’t want to do it this year so the legislation won’t be until 2014, and if it is, the process wouldn’t take place until 2015.”
Yet Blumberg and others say a pending automatic series of cuts to the overall federal budget totaling $1.2 trillion over 10 years, a process called “sequestration,” could prompt Congress to reach some agreement on how best to downsize the military, a shrinkage that’s already under way.
Because of the draconian nature of the pending cuts and the fact that about half of that $1.2 trillion is inflicted on the defense budget, and given statements from both President Obama and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, many expect that BRAC is a certainty sometime in the near future.
House May Delay Cuts
“It (BRAC) could be part of a compromise in the House (of Representatives) that calls for delaying sequestration and that ‘poison pill,’” said Erik Bruvold, president of National University System Institute for Policy Research. “It could happen after the election in late 2012 or in early 2013.”
Bruvold was on a local committee involved in the last BRAC process in 2005, which left San Diego largely unscathed in terms of facility subtractions. The area lost a medical training unit based at Balboa Hospital but gained a group of mine sweeping ships, so it was really a net gain for the region, Bruvold said.
The biggest gain to the region in past BRACs was the relocation of the Navy’s Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command (Spawar) in 1997 from Virginia. The agency, which acts as the procurer and developer for all the Navy’s information technology needs, not only counts more than 5,000 in direct employment here, but resulted in dozens of major and smaller contractors setting up shop in the region.
Among the most notable BRAC losses have been the Naval Training Center relocated to Great Lakes, Ill. in 1993, and 1996 relocation of the Naval Air Station Miramar, better known as “Top Gun,” to Fallon, Nev. In the same BRAC, the Navy decided to move the Marine Corps Air Base El Toro near Irvine to the spot vacated by Top Gun.
Congresswoman Susan Davis, D-53rd District and a member of the House’s Armed Services Committee, like many others contacted, said language for another BRAC wasn’t included in the defense budget bill that passed the House May 18, but it could happen down the road.
San Diego Strategically Significant
However, given San Diego’s current concentration of military assets, “San Diego is in a good place if there is a future BRAC process.”
“Considering San Diego’s strategic significance, I am optimistic that our region will be spared from significant closures,” Davis said. “However, it’s best not to take anything for granted.”
Providing hope San Diego would be spared big cuts in any BRAC is the fact that the Defense Department has already determined the necessity of a massive shift of the nation’s reduced military resources to the West Coast in conjunction with a focus on the Pacific instead of Europe.
Joe Kasper, spokesman for Congressman Duncan Hunter, R-52nd District, said even if there’s another BRAC or a mandated sequestration, “the overall feeling is that San Diego will be relatively safe.”
In a statement, Hunter said while finding efficiency in the federal budget is necessary, he is not convinced a BRAC needs to happen, “at least for now.”
Because San Diego already has the largest concentration of military assets in the nation, it would seem to make the most sense that DoD would more likely consolidate operations here rather than moving them elsewhere, said Ken Slaght, the former commander of Spawar and former president of the National Defense Industrial Association San Diego.
“If I was a betting man, I’d say that if there’s another BRAC, not only will we keep what we have, but we may end up getting more,” he said.