San Diego Business Journal

Index Shows Region’s Economy Slowly Improving

Monday, December 3, 2012

An index measuring San Diego’s economy edged up three tenths of 1 percent in October, the tenth time it’s risen in the past 12 months.

Three of the six components of the USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County increased: building permits, consumer confidence and the national economic outlook. Three other components — unemployment insurance claims, local stock prices, and help wanted ads, were virtually unchanged.

Alan Gin, the USD economics professor who compiles the index, said the most recent data epitomizes the current state of the economy, with more of the same expected, although the local economy may pick up somewhat next year.

He forecast regional job growth next year to range from 25,000 to 30,000 that will push the local jobless rate down to below 8 percent. It was at 8.6 percent in October.

The sectors that should see the most growth are the same ones enjoying growth this year, namely professional business services, health care and leisure and hospitality, he said.

Construction is also expected to rise as it did this year for the first time since the peak in June 2006. Housing prices are also expected to rise by high single digits, Gin said.

— SDBJ Staff Report