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Monday, Mar 18, 2024
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Economic Index Continues to Rise, Shows 0.4 Percent Gain

An index measuring San Diego’s economy increased 0.4 percent in December, making it the 21st consecutive month it has risen or stayed flat.

Alan Gin, the economics professor who compiles the USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County, said the index has been on an upward trend since early 2009, and the numbers portend positive growth for the region in 2011.

Speaking at a forum of economic experts called the Economics Roundtable, Gin forecast the region would gain 10,000 to 15,000 jobs this year, compared with a net gain of 6,300 jobs for 2010.

Last month’s index rose mainly by increases in local company stock prices and the national index of leading economic indicators. On the negative side were declines in the number of building permits issued, the amount of help wanted ads, and a rise in unemployment insurance claims.

Gin says a high jobless rate could still impede the sluggish recovery, especially because of increases in foreclosures and government budget deficits at every level.

Regarding home prices, the median should rise about 5 percent this year to bring it to about $350,000.

Building permits should finish the year at about 5,000, up 50 percent from last year, but still the third worst year in the county’s history, Gin said.

— Mike Allen

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