Judging from the latest Occupational Outlook report, the San Diego region has little to worry about when it comes to future job growth.
According to the annual job survey, 98 percent of local employers will either increase or maintain current staff levels.
Still, there’s cause to be wary.
The report was based on data culled last summer when the region’s economy was red hot, and prospects of layoffs and downsizings caused by out-of-control energy costs were scarcely evident.
Gary Moss, labor market information coordinator for the San Diego Workforce Partnership, the agency that produced the annual study, said if the survey had been done more recently, there might be different findings.
“There are some things shaking in the wind that could have an impact and negate some of the things in the report,” Moss said.
Despite a rise in local high-tech layoffs, Moss said overall the technology sector was creating more jobs than it was losing.
The 2001Outlook is an analysis of 30 job classifications, providing their expected increase, current salary levels and benefits, education and skill requirements, and anticipated supply and demand. The survey was conducted of about 450 local employers, ranging from small businesses to several with at least 1,000 workers.
In the most recent outlook, the fastest-growing job category in percentage terms was computer-support specialists, which are projected to increase 47.5 percent or 2,300 total jobs, over seven years from 1997 through 2004.
The next-fastest growing occupations were special-education teachers, 43.9 percent, or 1,220 total jobs; and bill collectors, 39.7 percent, or 1,020 jobs.
Tech Sector Still Growing
Computer-support specialists were also among the highest-paid workers in the survey, with the median salary for those with at least three years’ experience at $41,000 annually. The report also shows some workers in this occupation earning nearly $62,000.
In terms of salary levels, the highest-paying job of those surveyed was Web site designers, who were paid an average of $67,308 annually. Next highest were software engineers at $62,046, and financial managers, who are earning $61,172.
While the technology sector occupations certainly pay more, the largest number of new jobs will come from occupations that are among the lowest paying. Those were retail salespeople, with 15,110 total openings projected over seven years, and receptionists, with 4,570 total openings. Median pay for experienced salespeople was $9 per hour, while receptionists’ median pay was $12 per hour.
The next highest number of jobs in terms of total openings were auto mechanics, 2,550; computer specialists, 2,330; and electricians, 2,150.
A Positive Picture
Despite clear signs some firms aren’t expanding, the regional job picture remains positive, said Kelly Cunningham, research director for the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce.
In December, the area’s unemployment rate was 2.3 percent, matching a rate that hadn’t been seen since the 1950s; evidence shows many companies are still having a hard time finding qualified workers, he said.
Still, he sees some signals that all is not well.
“I think conditions have changed and are getting more suggestive of a slowing economy,” Cunningham said.
Although he projects the overall number of new jobs this year to be less than last year, there will still be an overall gain in new jobs in 2001.
“I’m estimating we’ll have about 35,000 new jobs, with the high-tech sectors contributing the most to that figure,” Cunningham said.
Last year, preliminary figures show the area had a net job growth of about 40,000, with some 14,000 that were high-tech related, including jobs in manufacturing and services.
“I’m still optimistic about the growth prospects in telecom, electronics, computers, software and aerospace and defense,” he said.
However, Cunningham and Moss are both realists. Should the national economy severely contract or if the state’s energy crisis worsens, more firms could cut existing staff just to survive, they said.
But as for now, it’s still a tight labor market, and one that provides ample options for those with technical skills, Moss said.
Beyond the basic skills, many employers are also demanding workers have a positive workplace attitude, or one that shows their boss they care about their job, are productive, and give the extra effort when needed, Moss said.
The 2001 Occupational Outlook will be available at all area libraries, career centers, high schools, community colleges and on the Workforce Partnership’s Web site.