An index measuring San Diego’s economy rose for the second straight month in May, mostly from a jump in the level of consumer confidence.

Alan Gin, the University of San Diego economics professor who compiles the index, which was released June 25, said cautious optimism should be exercised regarding the rise, and whether this means the local economy already bottomed out and is rebounding.

Should the index rise for a third consecutive month in June, that may signal that a bottom was reached. However, the local economy would likely stumble along for at least six to 12 months, Gin said.

Of the six components of the USD index, four showed increases, led by a 4.22 percent rise in consumer confidence. Other parts that rose were new building permits; stock prices of local businesses; and the national economic index of leading economic indicators.

Those gains were offset by a 3.12 percent increase in unemployment insurance claims (measured as a negative) and a drop in the amount of help wanted advertising.

Even after the economy does turn around, unemployment is still likely to continue at high levels as businesses tend to be cautious in hiring after a slump, Gin said.

“Still, the outlook is better than just two months ago, and a flat economy is better than one that is declining,” Gin said.

— Mike Allen