Three months of gains in the San Diego housing market has spurred cautious optimism among real estate professionals. Yet choppy waters ahead could sink the recovery before it starts.

The closely watched Case-Shiller Price Index reported July 28 that May showed the first positive increase in home prices since mid-2006.

MDA DataQuick, based in La Jolla, reported two weeks ago that medium prices in San Diego rose for the third consecutive month in June, hitting $314,250, which was the highest level since October 2008.

And the California Association of Realtors reported July 27 that median prices on existing San Diego home sales last month rose 6.1 percent to $362,650.

Each index uses different criteria, but all conclude the same thing: Home prices are rising.

Yet, brokers and economists are slow to call it a comeback, citing a backlog of foreclosures expected to hit the market this year, a slew of Alt-A adjustable rate mortgages scheduled to reset, and high unemployment.

“We haven’t seen improvement in the job market. In fact, it’s still getting worse, which is a big X factor,” said Paul Habibi, a real estate lecturer at UCLA Anderson School of Management.

Early To Fall, Late To Rise

One of the earlier U.S. markets to slump, San Diego was expected to help lead a national housing recovery.

But recent statistics show that other areas such as New York and Texas are recovering quicker than California. Banks here still have a backlog of foreclosure inventory to process because of a state-imposed moratorium, says Norm Miller, director of academic programs at University of San Diego’s Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate.

Lawmakers extended moratoriums on lenders to pressure them to modify home loans. But too many homeowners owe more than their homes are worth, making refinances unworkable.

“When you come out to California, you have to realize that you put a moratorium — an extra 90 days — on our foreclosures, which slowed things down,” Miller said. “That means some of the lending institutions will be increasing the rate of auctions and foreclosures in the fall.”

DataQuick reported second quarter notices of default, which begins the foreclosure process, rose 3.6 percent in San Diego compared to last year to 9,866. Yet trustee sales, which finalize the repossession of homes by lenders, fell 27 on the year for the same period to 3,518. The spread represents a backlog of inventory.