San Diego’s economy is trending positive, registering a fifth consecutive rise in a monthly economic index compiled by the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate at the University of San Diego.
For August the index rose 0.6 percent, the largest monthly rise since March 2004, propelled by a sharp increase in local consumer confidence, according to a report released Sept. 24.

Alan Gin, the USD economics professor who compiles the data for the index, said the rise last month reinforces a view that the economy is approaching a bottom.
The latest data is encouraging in that components that were negative are down by smaller amounts than in the past, Gin said.

“As was indicated in previous reports, it looks like a bottom is more likely in the first half of 2010 than in the latter part of 2009,” he said.

Besides a nearly 5 percent rise in consumer confidence, other measures that increased were the national economic index and local stock prices. The three measures registering negative moves were the number of building permits issued; unemployment claims filed (which is calculated as negative); and less help wanted advertising.

Gin said a key to the local economy in the coming months is whether it can stabilize as the summer ends and the activity in the latter part of the year tails off.

— Mike Allen